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Aug. 5, 2024Washington |  By: AP

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the Kansas state primaries

election

WASHINGTON (AP) — Kansas voters will choose their parties’ nominees for the U.S. House, the state legislature and the state Board of Education in primaries on Tuesday.

The elections aren’t likely to change the balance of power in Washington or Topeka, but many November races will essentially be determined in Tuesday’s primaries in the heavily Republican state.

In the 2nd Congressional District, both Democrats and Republicans are holding primaries to succeed two-term GOP U.S. Rep. Jake LaTurner, who announced in April he would not seek reelection. Among the five candidates seeking the Republican nomination is Derek Schmidt, the former three-term state attorney general who unsuccessfully challenged Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly in the 2022 gubernatorial election. Also seeking the nomination are former LaTurner aide and Trump-era Health and Human Services official Jeff Kahrs, rancher Shawn Tiffany and two others. Schmidt has led the field in campaign contributions, with Kahrs largely keeping pace as of mid-July.

Democrats also have a contested primary, featuring former U.S. Rep. Nancy Boyda, who served one term from 2007 to 2009, and Matt Kleinmann, a community health advocate and former University of Kansas basketball player.

LaTurner won reelection in 2022 with 58% of the vote. Voters in the 2nd District gave Republican Donald Trump 56% and 57% of the vote in the 2016 and 2020 presidential races, respectively.

In the 3rd Congressional District, two Republicans are vying for the nomination to challenge three-term U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids, who is the state’s lone Democratic member of Congress. The GOP primary pits physician Prasanth Reddy against small business owner and community activist Karen Crnkovich. Reddy has raised and banked almost 10 times as much as Crnkovich in campaign cash as of mid-July, though both significantly trail the incumbent’s war chest.

Davids received 55% of the vote in her 2022 reelection bid. She represents the state’s only swing district. Voters there preferred Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton, 48% to 43%, in 2016. But they gave Democrat Joe Biden 51% of the vote in 2020.

All seats in the state legislature are up for election this year, with 16 state Senate and 25 state House seats facing contested primaries on Tuesday. Republicans have safe majorities in both chambers.

Voters will also decide Republican primaries for the state Board of Education in the 4th and 10th districts.

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Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Primary day

The Kansas state primaries will be held Tuesday. The last polls close at 9 p.m. ET. Most of Kansas is in the Central time zone, where polls close at 8 p.m. ET, but four counties are in the Mountain time zone, where polls close at 9 p.m. ET. All polls in the state close at 7 p.m. local time.

What’s on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. House, state Senate, state House and state Board of Education.

Who gets to vote

Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may participate in either primary. In Kansas, the parties decided whether to allow unaffiliated voters to participate in their primaries.

Decision notes

The state’s most populous counties — and the most Democratic-friendly — are Johnson in the Kansas City suburbs, Sedgwick, which includes Wichita, and Shawnee, which includes the state capital of Topeka.

Shawnee plays a significant role in the 2nd Congressional District, making up about a quarter of the area’s population. Vote-rich Johnson is usually decisive is in the 3rd Congressional District, with 83% of the district’s population.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Kansas does not have automatic recounts, although a candidate may request one. Candidates do not have to pay for a recount if the vote margin is 0.5% of the vote or less. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of June, there were 1,975,627 registered voters in Kansas. Of those, about 26% were Democrats and 44% were Republicans.

In the 2022 primaries, turnout was about 15% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and about 25% in the Republican primary. About 43% of Democratic primary voters and 30% of Republican primary voters cast their ballots before primary day.

As of Thursday, 55,519 ballots had been cast before primary day, about 40% in the Democratic primary and 60% in the Republican primary.

How long does vote-counding usually take?

In the 2022 state primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:22 p.m. ET, or 22 minutes after most polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 3:31 a.m. ET with about 97% of total votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 91 days until the November general election.