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Aug. 4, 2024 | By: Rudi Keller - Missouri Independent
By Rudi Keller - Missouri Independent
The Missouri Senate could look very different next year.
Only 14 of 34 members are certain to be on hand for opening day 2025 as term limits force out some incumbents and others seek new offices.
Half the Senate is on the ballot every two years, and this year there is a contest in every one of those 17 districts — at least in the primary of the district’s dominant party.
This year’s election will be the first since redistricting for the seats on the ballot this year, adding another element of uncertainty about the outcome. Some incumbents are new to a majority of voters because of map changes and some seats that were safe for one party or another in the 2020 election may not be as certain.
There are 10 districts certain to elect new senators. In the other seven, incumbents face challengers, including four facing one or more primary opponents.
Three other seats that could become vacant are held by state Sens. Karla May, a St. Louis Democrat running for U.S. Senate; Mary Elizabeth Coleman, an Arnold Republican running for secretary of state; and Lincoln Hough, a Springfield Republican running for lieutenant governor.
Another thing that could change is the partisan makeup of the chamber. Republicans have enjoyed a supermajority in the Senate — more than two-thirds of the seats — since 2009, and the current 24-10 split is unchanged since 2019.
“There’s more competitive races this year than there have been in a long time,” said Stephen Webber, a former legislator and Missouri Democratic Party chair seeking the 19th District seat being vacated by Senate President Pro Tem Caleb Rowden.
How much of a stranglehold the GOP will have in the Senate will be decided in six districts, five of which are in major metro areas. The political history of all six — the 11th and 17th districts in the Kansas City area, the 1st, 15th and 23rd in the St. Louis region and the 19th in Boone County — gives them only a slight lean for one party or the other.
James Harris, a longtime Republican political consultant, said he sees little chance of the GOP losing the supermajority. The best-case Republican scenario — which concedes a flip in the 19th to Webber, he said — is for Democrats to lose both seats in the Kansas City area and hold the contested seats in the St. Louis region.
That would give Republicans 25 seats in the chamber.
“That is if it’s a great night for Republicans and Trump is just really doing well, which is possible,” Harris said.
Webber began raising money for his race about two years ago and has amassed a campaign treasury many statewide candidates would envy. His candidate committee has raised $542,000 since the beginning of 2023 and had $347,000 on hand on June 30. His joint fundraising committee, Homefront PAC, has raised $453,000 and had $437,000 available.
His Republican opponent has only started raising funds.
Because contributions to Senate candidates are capped at $2,400, most candidates also sponsor a political action committee. A candidate can solicit contributions to the PAC but cannot direct how the money is spent to promote their campaign.
Webber’s fund balances are second only to Senate Minority Leader Doug Beck of Affton among candidates on this year’s state Senate ballot. Beck is seeking a second term in the 1st District in south St. Louis County.
Beck has $434,000 in the campaign account under his direct control and another $504,000 in DougPAC. His opponent, Robert Crump, has not reported raising any money.
“I always run my campaign like I’m down,” Beck said. “I want to do what I need to do to win this. I have an extensive field game together, I’ll be doing mail and I’ll be doing TV, so I’m gonna do all the things that I need to do to win.”
Statewide, Beck said he expects to break the GOP supermajority and hopes to sweep the races that would give Democrats 13 total seats. The Democratic Party’s best year this century was a two-seat gain in 2006.
“Three are keeps, and three are flips,” Beck said. “That’s what we’re shooting for.”
Initiative petitions to restore abortion rights and increase the minimum wage seem certain to appear on the November ballot.
“Those two things drive us and help us exponentially,” Beck said.
Democratic tactics will promote voting for the initiatives and the party’s candidates to protect them, Beck said. It won’t change the outcome in heavily Republican areas, he said, but it will make a difference.
“The areas we’re competing in are in the suburbs, and this is where the message is, and where people are going to be listening when they come out and vote,” Beck said.
Economic issues are what voters are worried about, Harris contends, not abortion rights.
Abortion rights don’t matter “other than to some very progressive people in Webster Groves and the Central West End. It is a rich and elite problem to be concerned with,” he said. “But as you move out of that little bubble, for people making under $100,000, it’s concerns about paying bills and credit card debts going up.”
Breaking the supermajority may be an unreachable goal, said Terry Smith, a professor of political science at Columbia College.
“In the last redistricting process, these districts got drawn up so that they were, with not very many exceptions, pretty red or pretty blue,” Smith said. “The way the districts are drawn, I just see that’s a real stretch.”
Democrats have “captured the narrative” on abortion and it will help them across the state, he said.
“The bottom line is, even if Democrats have a really good year, the best I think they can do is come close to not being in a super minority in the Senate,” Smith said.
9th District (Jackson County including east side of Kansas City and Raytown). State Sen. Barbara Washington is being challenged by former State Rep. Brandon Ellington in the Democratic primary. Both Washington and Ellington have reported limited fundraising activity for the campaign, although Washington had about $78,000 on hand in her campaign account at the last full report. The winner will face Republican Derron Black, who also has not raised any significant campaign funds. This district votes about 80% Democratic.
13th District (northern St. Louis County including Jennings, Spanish Lake, Florissant and Old Jamestown). The 13th district is a Democratic primary that has the highest possibility of replacing the incumbent, outside observers said. State Rep. Chantelle Nickson-Clark is taking on incumbent state Sen. Angela Mosley in a test of well-established Democratic factions in St. Louis.
Mosley is promoting a slate of candidates — including two of her daughters — in contested primaries for legislative seats and other positions through her campaign social media accounts. Nickson-Clark is trying to move from the House to the Senate after a single term as a lawmaker.
One of the hottest issues in the race is the education bill passed this year that boosts the minimum salary for teachers, changes the formula for funding public schools and expands a tax-credit scholarship for private schools.
Nickson-Clark was one of three Democrats who voted in favor of the bill in the House and Chantelle PAC has received two $10,000 contributions from the Quality Schools Coalition, a school choice advocacy group.
In an opinion piece published by the St. Louis-Southern Illinois Labor Tribune, Mosley called the bill a “sham” that was “packed with a few things that most reasonable people agree upon but also include hidden gifts for their special-interest supporters — like the millionaire-funded school-choice advocates.”
The American Federation of Teachers has paid for billboards backing Mosley.
Nickson-Clark has achievements she can counter with. A bill she was the only member to introduce, making it easier for women with breast and cervical cancer to get Medicaid-paid treatment, was included in a broader bill and signed into law.
But she has also had to deal with charges that Antonio Jones, her fiance and campaign employee, was named in a federal drug indictment and is currently awaiting trial. Her campaign continues to employ Jones, who has received $7,100 as a campaign worker since Nickson-Clark formed a committee in 2022.
29th District (Barry, Christian, Lawrence and McDonald counties). One of the Senate’s most conservative members, Mike Moon of Ash Grove, is being challenged by business owner Susan Haralson of Ozark.
Redistricting significantly changed the boundaries after the 2020 election, when Moon narrowly won his primary. Two of the counties Moon won, Stone and Taney, were moved to the 33rd District and two he lost, Barry and McDonald, remain.
Christian County, home of Haralson, is now the largest population county in the district and Moon has never been on a ballot there.
The only bill introduced by Moon in his 12-year legislative career that has been signed into law limits medical procedures for transgender children. He is better known for lengthy filibusters, where he often reads religious-themed books, and fighting with the Senate leadership over rules of decorum and procedure.
Moon did not return a call this week. But he’s getting help from U.S. Rep. Eric Burlison, who defeated Moon in a primary in 2022, and other lawmakers from the Freedom Caucus faction.
“We’ve got to defend this guy,” Burlison said about Moon at a Springfield campaign event last month.
Haralson, in an interview, said voters want more than an obstructionist who is fixated on social issues.
“I have never seen Mike very passionate about anything other than social issues,” Haralson said. “Well, there’s a lot more than social issues that we need in Christian County and McDonald County.”
Both candidates are spending modest amounts compared to other races. Haralson said she has found it difficult to solicit funds for her Present Day Conservatives PAC because donors don’t want to anger Moon if he wins. That could cause friction within the Senate, with the PAC associated with Sen. Jason Bean donating $15,000 on July 17 to Haralson’s PAC.
Ron Monnig, a Democrat from Eagle Rock, will face the primary winner in a district where Trump took 77.5% of the vote in 2020.
31st District. (Bates, Cass, Johnson counties). State Sen. Rick Brattin is the chair of the Missouri Freedom Caucus. Like Moon, he is running in a district that is markedly different from the one where he received just under 50% of the vote in a three-way primary in 2020.
Brattin’s home is in Cass County, which retains the largest share of votes in the primary. But two counties Brattin won, Barton and Henry, along with Vernon, have been replaced by Johnson County. That is the home of his best-funded opponent and 5,000 primary voters who only saw him on a 2022 congressional primary ballot, where he was a distant second to the winner, Mark Alford.
State Rep. Dan Houx of Warrensburg has raised $94,000 for his campaign fund and almost $320,000 for H-PAC. The two funds had more than $430,000 to spend as of June 30.
State Rep. Mike Haffner of Pleasant Hill is also a Cass County resident. Haffner has raised a little more than $105,000 between his campaign fund and CLCP PAC, his joint fundraising committee. His funds had about $85,000 on June 30.
Brattin has done better than Haffner but has only raised a little more than a third of the amount donated for Houx’s campaign. His campaign fund held $76,164 and his joint fundraising committee, True Patriot PAC, had $46,258 at the end of the second quarter.
In the spring, Brattin lashed out at both his opponents, who criticized the Freedom Caucus faction in the Senate for disrupting the legislative process.
Harris, who is consulting for Brattin’s campaign, said the Freedom Caucus’ disruptive tactics appeal to conservative voters.
“I think if you’re a conservative voter, you want people that take a gun to a knife fight,” he said. “They’re not really in the diplomacy phase.”
The winner will face Raymond James, a Leeton Democrat, in a district that gave 67% of its vote to Trump in 2020.
27th District (Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Iron, Madison, Perry, Reynolds and Scott counties). State Sen. Holly Rehder is passing up another term in the state Senate to run for lieutenant governor, generating a three-way primary between Jacob Turner of Jackson, making his first bid for office; and two veteran campaigners, state Reps. Jamie Burger of Benton, who has won two terms after being a county commissioner in Scott County; and Chris Dinkins of Lesterville, who has won four terms in the House.
The total spent in the primary will likely exceed $1 million.
Burger has raised $201,734 for his candidate fund since the start of 2023 and just over $250,000 for Bootheel Values PAC. The two funds have spent almost $200,000 so far and had a combined $263,000 on hand on June 30.
Dinkins has raised $204,000 for her campaign committee and almost $50,000 more for Red Hawk PAC. The two committees have spent about $150,000 and had about $140,000 on hand.
Turner has raised $102,276 for his committee, another $60,000 for Faith and Family PAC. Through June 30, the committees had only spent a combined total of about $50,000, leaving $105,000.
33rd District (Douglas, Howell, Ozark, Shannon, Stone, Taney and Texas counties). The seat is vacant because Karla Eslinger, elected in 2020, resigned to take the helm of the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education as commissioner of education. The primary between state Reps. Travis Smith of Dora, who is in his second term, and Brad Hudson of Cape Fair, who was elected three times as Stone County assessor before winning his House seat in 2018. The combined fundraising in the race has been less than $250,000, with Hudson holding the edge.
11th District (northern Jackson County including Independence, Grain Valley and Sugar Creek). There are three Republicans vying for the chance to represent the hometown of Missouri’s only president, Harry Truman, with a well-funded Democratic candidate waiting for the winner.
Incumbent state Sen. John Rizzo, a Democrat from Independence, resigned before term limits removed him from office to become executive director of the Jackson County Sports Complex Authority.
State Rep. Aaron McMullen of Independence is the best-funded Republican, raising more than $300,000 by June 30 for his campaign and PAC, with $232,000 available for the final push and more large donations coming in.
Joe Nicola of Grain Valley, who has run for Congress and Senate in the past, has raised almost $90,000 and David Martin of Kansas City has raised less than $10,000.
State Rep. Robert Sauls, a Democrat from Independence, has just under $160,000 in his campaign fund and almost $260,000 in his Independence Leadership PAC.
Harris said it won’t be enough.
“There’ll be a bump up for Trump,” Harris said. “That’s a little more blue collar area of Jackson County where Trump as the nominee, is kind of an asset to the Republican.”
Sauls is the best counter, Beck said.
“Robbie Sauls is the only candidate in the state that has won a district that Trump won,” Beck said, noting his 45-vote victory in 2020 for an Independence-based House seat.
15th District (western St. Louis County including Chesterfield, Wildwood, Manchester and Town and Country). With term-limited Republican state Sen. Andrew Koenig leaving office, the GOP race has attracted three veteran politicians, with the winner facing a Democrat whose campaign fund has raised more than any other Senate candidate this cycle.
The Republican line-up is Mark Harder, who has three terms on the St. Louis County Council, Jim Bowlin, a two-term mayor of Wildwood, and former state Rep. David Gregory, who lost a 2022 primary for state auditor.
All three have shown substantial fundraising support, with Gregory having the slight edge.
The Democratic candidate will be Joe Pereles, an attorney who was senior vice president of development and general counsel for Drury Hotels Company. Between his campaign committee and Fearless PAC, Pereles has raised more than the combined efforts of the Republicans and had more than $600,000 on hand on June 30.
The district, which voting history shows to be about 54% Republican, is one where abortion will make a difference in the fall, Beck said.
23rd District (eastern St. Charles County including St. Charles, St. Peters and West Alton). Democrats see a chance in the district that sent Eigel to Jefferson City because new boundaries were drawn after the 2020 census, giving it the largest concentration of union workers in the state, Beck said.
State Rep. Phil Christofanelli of St. Peters, who has been elected to four terms, is the best-funded candidate, with more than $660,000 raised between his campaign committee and Gladius PAC. That is more than the other three candidates, three-term state Rep. Adam Shnelting of St. Charles, Dan O’Connell of St. Peters and Rich Chrismer of St. Peters, who was elected to four terms as St. Charles County Clerk.
The voting history has the district at 53% Republican. In his last election, Eigel won with 57% against a candidate who did very little.
Beck said Democrats are working to get funding for Matt Williams, a first-time candidate.
Harris said the blue-collar, pro-Trump vote that will influence the 11th District will help the winner of the 23rd District primary.
3rd District (Crawford, St. Francois, Ste. Genevieve, Washington, southern Jefferson County): State Sen. Elaine Gannon is not seeking re-election in this district where no Democrat filed in 2016 or 2020.
The candidates are House Speaker Pro Tem Mike Henderson of Bonne Terre and two-term state Rep. Cyndi Buchheit-Cordway of Festus. Henderson has raised nearly $300,000 since the start of 2023 for his campaign and joint fundraising committee, Leadbelt PAC, while Buchheit-Cordway has raised about half that amount.
Doug Halbert of Hematite is the Democratic candidate in a district that went about 69% for Trump in 2020.
7th District (downtown and historic northeast Kansas City and Grandview) The senator elected in 2020, Greg Razer, was appointed to the State Tax Commission in May by Gov. Mike Parson, setting off a primary between Pat Contreras, who a statewide primary for treasurer in 2016, and two-term state Rep. Patty Lewis.
The two are about evenly matched in fundraising, with Contreras having a slight edge. Joey LaSalle is the Republican candidate in the district that is heavily Democratic.
21st District (Cooper, Howard, Lafayette, Ray, Saline, and northeast Clay counties). Two incumbent state representatives are vying for the Republican nomination to replace term-limited state Sen. Denny Hoskins. The district has been significantly changed from 2020, when no Democrat filed, dropping Carroll, Livingston and Johnson counties and gaining Cooper and Clay counties.
Two-term state Rep. Kurtis Gregory of Marshall has the fundraising edge over three-term state Rep. Doug Richey of Excelsior Springs. Jim Bates of Liberty is the Democratic candidate in the district that is rated 63% Republican based on voting history.
1st District (southern St. Louis County). Beck has $434,000 in the campaign account under his direct control and another $504,000 in DougPAC to counter the challenge from Robert Crump, a candidate who has run unsuccessfully in the past for the House and Senate. Crump has not reported raising any money. The district leans slightly Democratic.
5th District (downtown and north St. Louis). State Sen. Steven Roberts is the Democratic incumbent, challenged by Robert Vroman, vice-chair of the St. Louis Republican Central Committee. It is a district that votes 88% Democratic.
17th District (southwest Clay County including North Kansas City, Claycomo, Pleasant Valley and Gladstone) Vacant since Lauren Arthur was appointed to the state Labor and Industrial Relations Commission, state Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern of Kansas City will try to hold it for Democrats against three-term Clay County Commissioner Jerry Nolte. Nurrenbern has amassed a campaign treasury of $320,000, with another $170,000 in the Northland Forward PAC. Nolte had $48,610 on hand on June 30. The district’s voting history is an almost even split between Republicans and Democrats.
Clay County “really is the bellwether,” Harris said. “Republicans can win it or lose it. That county is almost the Wisconsin or Michigan of Missouri.
19th District (Boone County) Rowden must leave office due to term limits and Webber, his 2016 opponent, is trying to flip it for Democrats. Boone County has only given a majority to a Republican in three Senate races since 1960, the last time in 2012. Rowden was elected when the district also included Cooper County. James Coyne is the Republican candidate who replaced Chuck Basye, who withdrew after filing because of a cancer diagnosis. Coyne has raised $3,700 since launching his campaign, according to a report filed Thursday.
25th District (Butler, Carter, Dunklin, Mississippi, New Madrid, Oregon, Pemiscot, Ripley, Stoddard and Wayne counties). Incumbent Republican state Sen. Jason Bean of Holcomb will face Democrat Chuck Banks of Silva, a former presiding commissioner of Jefferson County. This district gives, on average, 77% of its votes to Republicans.
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